When the need for employment arises, there is no time for improvisation or opportunity for belated regrets
Pinto Silva Carlos Alberto [1]
DefesaNet Note
Original Title in Portuguese
QUEBRA DA ESTABILIDADE ESTRATÉGICA NA AMÉRICA DO SUL
The Editor
- BRAZIL – AN ACTOR IN SEARCH OF A ROLE.
Brazil is a regional actor that has already achieved global influence in politics and economics.
Brazil’s main strategic concern is inexorably related to the economy. The country’s internal capacity to achieve the necessary structural changes and economic growth will allow the increase of two of the Power patterns, the Economic and the Military (the latter having political will).
Brazil has sought to play a present role as a mediator in international issues, despite having achieved limited success. Its objective is to strengthen ties with various regions of the world and serve as a voice for developing countries.
The country seeks to strengthen ties with nations in Latin America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East, as well as mediate conflicts, such as in the recent negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and Israel and Hamas. However, it seems that Brazil’s role as a mediator has been ignored by the Western world, which has reacted with various measures, contrary to our interests, on the international battlefield.
“When you meet a swordsman, draw your sword: do not recite poems to someone who is not a poet“[2]. The sword, in addition to being at hand, must be sharp and shiny; sharp to cut, shiny to sparkle like lightning and be seen from afar.
Short- and long-term military strategies[3] can be regional or global and may require improvement of military capacity and a new force structure. Military objectives, the military strategic concept, and military resources[4] are important tools for arriving at the force structure in the short and long term.
2. CONFLICTS IN THE STRATEGIC AREA OF INTEREST.
Possible conflicts between Latin American countries may be under control and dormant, but this does not mean that the conflictual relationship has disappeared. Hostility is not only manifested by physical violence and the use of military means; it continues to exist due to economic, diplomatic, psychological, ideological and populist problems, the weakness of States, and nationalist outbursts and ethno-cultural values.
3. MILITARY POWER.
In Brazil, in the current situation, military objectives and strategic concepts are well ahead of the reality in terms of military resources, which means that we may have to face a mismatch between strategy and operational possibilities, that is, inadequate military capabilities to implement strategic concepts and achieve the objectives set out by the policy for military strategy.
The existence of a Military Power capable of quickly and successfully opposing an aggression, or inducing the enemy to perceive that the cost is too high for what he intends to achieve, constitutes effective deterrence, particularly when the Political Objectives involved are limited, which leads us to the following concepts:
– Strategic Stability: balance achieved between nations while each side avoids spending on weapons that could cause apprehension on the opposing side and a consequent and preventive armed action.
– Crisis Stability: knowledge by nations that neither of them can gain a substantial advantage over the other in a limited armed action.
4. POSSIBLE BREACH OF STRATEGIC STABILITY BY VENEZUELA
4.1 Involvement with Iran.
Collaboration between Iran and Venezuela raises questions about possible hostile activities in the region, especially considering the offensive capacity of the drones[5] in Venezuela’s possession.
The presence of Venezuelan Zolfaghar-class missile boats[6] near the Gulf of Paria on February 25, 2024, is a relevant fact that deserves attention.
4.2 Involvement with Russia.
There is information suggesting the presence of Russian troops in Venezuela, and there are reports that Russia has military bases in the country.
Venezuela operates 21 Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30 aircraft and has three batteries of S-300VM long-range anti-aircraft missiles, considered one of the best aerospace defense systems in the region by European experts.
4.3. Involvement with China.
China’s involvement in Venezuela is a complex issue that involves diplomatic relations, trade agreements, and investments. However, these investments could increase the country’s debt to China, making it potentially unpayable in the future (Geoeconomics).
. CONCLUSION.
It remains to be seen, given the perceptions presented, even if in summary form:
– We are experiencing a breakdown in “Strategic Stability” in South America, which leads us to a possible arms race.
– The military support of Russia and Iran, and the economic support of China to Venezuela, as well as the threats to neighbors, are causing concern to other countries.
– The discrepancy between Brazil’s Military Power and its Political and Strategic Stature, a burden imposed on the nation, cannot pay the “tribute of time”.
– The existence of a Military Power capable of quickly and successfully opposing an aggression constitutes effective deterrence, particularly when the objectives are limited. This leads us to commit to the concept of “Crisis Stability”.
– When the need for employment arises, there is no time for improvisation or opportunity for belated regrets.
– In real Brazil, without the military resources (budgets, troops, modern military equipment, logistics, etc.) necessary for its Armed Forces to fulfill their constitutional mission, there is no National Defense Strategy.
The most efficient and perverse strategy to destroy an Army is to send it to a war it cannot win, in which defeat is used to discredit it and make it despised by the Nation.
Articles published by Gen. Pinto Silva related to the “Breach of Strategic Stability in South America“..
– Gen Ex Pinto Silva – Estamos Ignorando a História
– Gen Ex Pinto Silva – Manter uma Força Armada, Transformada e Preparada
– Gen Pinto Silva – Reação à Crise do ESSEQUIBO
– Gen Pinto Silva – Estratégia Indireta na Crise com a Venezuela
– Gen Pinto Silva – A Guerra de Nova Geração Chegando a América do Sul
[1] Carlos Alberto Pinto Silva / Veteran Army General / former commander of the Western Military Command, Southern Military Command, Land Operations Command, former commander of the 2nd BIS and the 17th Infantry Bde Sl, Chief of the EM of the CMA, Member of the Defense Academy and CEBRES.
[2] Buddhist Classic – Translated by Thomas Cleary
[3] Military Strategy – Military Objectives (Ends) + Strategic Concepts (Paths) + Military Resources (Means).
[4] For Military Strategy: military objectives are set by Policy; a strategic concept can be defined as the line of military action resulting from the study of the strategic situation, and can combine a wide spectrum of lines of action; and military resources refer to personnel, military equipment, budgetary resources, logistics, and others, and determine the possibilities of fulfilling the mission. This idea is applicable to the four levels of warfare: political, military, operational and tactical.
[5] It has offensive-capable drones; partnership with Iran began around 2006 and took off in 2011.
[6] It is a class of fast patrol vessels operated in Iran by the Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Text in Portuguese
