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Bird
Flu Epidemic Could Kill Millions Worldwide: Experts
Geneva
(AFP) Sep 18, 2005 - Of the 192 members of the UN just 40
countries had drawn up detailed plans for combatting an
outbreak in humans of a mutation of the H5N1 virus which
could, like the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic, kill millions
of people.
Millions of people could die around the world if bird flu
spreads out of control, and most countries are totally unprepared
for such an event, the UN's World Health Organisation says.
"If there was a flu pandemic tomorrow we would not
be ready. The clock is ticking and when the pandemic strikes
it will be too late," said WHO spokeswoman Christine
McNab.
Despite
warnings at the United Nations by US President George W.
Bush and French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin calling
for international cooperation to confront the "first
pandemic of the 21st century", the international community
was far from prepared.
"There
is very good momentum, but a lot of work remains to be done,"
McNab said.
Of the
192 members of the UN just 40 countries had drawn up detailed
plans for combatting an outbreak in humans of a mutation
of the H5N1 virus which could, like the 1918 Spanish influenza
pandemic, kill millions of people.
For
the WHO it is question of when, not if, the virus crosses
over to a strain affecting humans, experts said.
"The
question is, 'When is it going to happen?' I don't think
anybody has the answer to it... We have to be on the lookout
for any time, any day," the WHO specialist on the virus,
Margaret Chan, said in July.
The
United Nations has called on its member states to make preparations
with a document entitled "Responding to the avian influenza
pandemic threat: recommended strategic actions."
Health
professionals say an outbreak would appear in three phases:
- the
prepandemic phase, that needs to be countered by a sophisticated
warning system and information sharing so as to detect the
first changes in the virus's behaviour;
- an
"emerging phase";
- the
"declared pandemic phase" when the virus rages
unchecked across national borders.
"Since
late 2003, the world has moved closer to a pandemic than
any time since 1968... given the constantly changing nature
of influenza viruses, the timing and severity of the next
pandemic cannot be predicted," the WHO document says.
The
countries most at risk, with poorly developed health and
veterinary services and a lack of laboratories, would be
unable to cope or the undertake vaccinations or distribute
required anti-viral drugs.
"On
present trends, neither of these interventions will be available
in adequate quantities or equitably distributed at the start
of a pandemic and for many months thereafter," the
report says.
Last
month, the WHO warned that the current world production
of some 300 million vaccine doses per year would be insufficient
to cope with a pandemic and that it would be impossible
to increase output rapidly.
It has
begun stocking vaccine, signing a contract with the Swiss
pharmaceutical giant Roche for 30 million doses that could
treat three million people.
The
organisation is also concerned about about the inequalities
between the developed and underdeveloped countries: the
former are better prepared, but it is the latter where the
outbreak is most likely to occur.
Ninety
percent of global influenza vaccine production is located
in Europe and North America.
Since
world leaders voiced concerned at the UN in New York, Italy
has drawn up a 50 million euro program measures to both
prevent and counter an outbreak and Canada has announced
intentions to stage a global summit of health ministers.
French
laboratory Sanofi Pasteur on Thursday signed a contract
with the US government to produce an experimental vaccine
targetting the H5N1 virus.
But
the virus continues to claim lives: a 37-year-old Indonesian
died Friday, taking to 63 the number of victims of bird
flu since its discovery in Southeast Asia in 2003.
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